Hurricane Irma live updates: 13 million still without power in Florida | Miami Herald

A homing guidance method where the missile provides its own signal typically either radar or sonar transmissions and homes in on the energy reflected off the target. Accumulator - Also, Parlay A multiple bet. Of a section two aircraft , the one which keeps lookout while maneuvering to gain advantageous position as his partner, the engaged fighter, maneuvers against the bandit. You should not engage in bribing the policemen. RN The Royal Navy surface fleet.

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In US, to win a race or a bet. Scratch Scratching - To be taken out of a race before it starts. Trainers usually scratch horses due to adverse track conditions or a horse's adverse health. A veterinarian can scratch a horse at any time. Scratch Sheet - Daily publication that includes graded handicaps, tips and scratches.

Second Call - A secondary mount of a jockey in a race in the event his primary mount is scratched. Selections - The horses selected by a knowledgeable person Tipster to have the most likely chance of finishing in first, second and third place. This may also refer to a person's own selections, the horses they have chosen to back. Selling Race - A race where the winner is sold by auction immediately afterwards. Settler - A bookmaker's expert who calculates payouts. Shadow Roll - Usually a lamb's wool roll half way up the horse's face to keep him from seeing his own shadow.

Shorten, Shortening the Odds - When the odds of a horse decrease, usually because a lot of money has been wagered on that horse. Short Runner - A horse who barely stays, or doesn't stay, the full distance of a race. Short Price - Low odds, meaning a punter will get little return for their initial outlay. Show - Third position at the finish. Show Bet - Wager on a horse to finish in the money; third or better.

Shut Out US - What happens to a bettor who gets on the betting line to late and is still waiting in line when the window closes. Also, in sports betting, when the losing team do not score. SI - Followed by a number is the Speed Index the speed rating of a horse. A horse receives a speed index number every time he races at an AQHA-recognized track. The speed index system was developed as a way to compare horses in races run on different tracks.

Silks - See 'Colors'. Simulcast - A simultaneous live television transmission of a race to other tracks, off-track betting offices or other outlets for the purpose of wagering.

Single - A Straight bet on one selection to win one race or event, also known as a straight-up bet. Single Stakes About or SSA - A bet consisting of 2 bets on two selections 1 single on each selection any to come 1 single on the other selection reversed. Sire - Father of a horse. Sleeper - A sleeper is an underrated racehorse. A horse which unexpectedly wins a race having previously shown poor form is said to have been a Sleeper.

Sloppy track - A track that is wet on surface, with standing water visible, with firm bottom. Slow track - A racing strip that is wet on both the surface and base. Between good and heavy. Smart Money - Insiders' bets or the insiders themselves.

Soft track - Condition of a turf course with a large amount of moisture. Horses sink very deeply into it. Spell - The resting period between preparations or racing. Sportsbook - The person, shop or website who accepts bets.

Spot Play US - Type of play in which bettor risks money only on types of races and horses which seem relatively worthwhile risks. Sprint - Short race, less than one mile. Stakes Horse - A horse whose level of competition includes mostly stakes races. Stakes-Placed - Finished second or third in a stakes race. Stakes race - A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee. Stakes - The sums of money deposited or guaranteed by the parties to a bet.

Stake - The prize money for the winning horses paid to the owner eg. Stallion - A male horse used for breeding. Standing Start - In harness racing, starters start from a standing position, once the barrier across the track is released.

Starter - The person responsible for starting a race. Starting Gate - Partitioned mechanical device having stalls in which the horses are confined until the starter releases the doors in front to begin the race. Starting Price or SP - An estimation of odds available when the race starts.

Starting Stalls - Mechanical gates that ensure all horses start in unison. Stayer Also, Slayer - A horse that can race long distances. Steam - When a betting selection starts to move quite rapidly, usually caused by many bettors betting on it.

Steeplechase - A race in which horses are required to jump over a series of obstacles on the course. Also known as a 'Chase'. Stewards - The group of people who control the day's racing by ensuring that every runner competes on its merits and imposing penalties for any breach of the rules of racing. Stewards Enquiry - An enquiry by the stewards into a race.

Stick - Also, Bat A jockey's whip. Stickers - Calks on shoes which give a horse better traction in mud or on soft tracks. Stipes - Another term for the Stewards. Or Stipendiary Stewards Stooper US - Those who make a living picking up discarded mutuel tickets at racetracks and cashing those that have been thrown away by mistake. Store US - A sportsbook or a bookie. Straight - Betting to win only. Straight Forecast UK - A tote bet operating in races of 3 or more declared runners in which the punter has to pick the first and second to finish in the correct order.

Straight Six - A wager to correctly select the winner of each of six consecutive nominated races. Strapper - Also known as an attendant. A person who assists the trainer, cares for the horse or helps to put on its equipment.

Stretch home-Stretch - Final straight portion of the racetrack to the finish. Stretch Runner - Horse that runs its fastest nearing the finish of a race.

Other Keys residents had been able to get in touch with neighbors and knew their homes had only been slightly battered. Gibus said he was frustrated by the lack of information about when he would be able to return home and thought the police blockade should be farther south to allow the northern Keys residents to pass through. That was a sentiment echoed by many waiting at the gas station. Marc Serota had decided to leave his home in Key Tavernier with his wife and two small children on Friday because he was worried about their safety.

Residents in Miami Gardens made their way outside Monday morning to rake up smaller branches, cut larger ones and clear their yards of debris. About a mile away from Hard Rock Stadium, Jesse Martin was working on his truck and looked out at a giant tree that came down in his front yard, along Northwest 12th Avenue near nd Street.

Carlos Castillo pointed his camera and clicked. Castillo was walking outside the Arsht Center for the Performing Arts around 8 a. Monday as the city slowly came out of a weekend-long slumber. Outside Bayfront Marketplace, large palm trees were downed in some places and street signs toppled, but the Miamarina behind the outdoor shopping center looked almost untouched, despite some damaged storefronts and the new presence of a lawn of seaweed and flotsam and jetsam.

They included a year-old-man who fell on a live cable while trying to take down a TV antenna in Havana, a year-old man who was electrocuted in Old Havana after stepping on a fallen electrical line, and two women who were killed when a fourth floor balcony tumbled on to the bus in which they were riding.

Other deaths resulted from collapsed homes and an apparent drowning after the storm surge. Irma hit the northern coast of Cuba as a Category 5 storm. House of Representatives will not convene for votes on Monday due to Hurricane Irma. The stadium, with its brand new canopy, is built to withstand Category 4 force winds. For news on curfews and closures across South Florida go here.

On the day after Hurricane Irma, the question everyone wants answered is: When will my power and cellphone service be restored? Your cellphone should be working again relatively soon.

As dawn broke on Monday morning, 2 million of the 2. The vast majority of boats tied to docks and piers survived. But there were ugly exceptions: Sailboats sent to the bottom at Dinner Key Marina, their masts jutting skyward from the sea. A multi-ton cement dock lifted up onto the sea wall at the Grove Harbour Marina. Three Florida Fish and Wildlife search and rescue teams have been deployed to Jacksonville to help evacuate people stranded from record flooding.

The storm surge from Hurricane Irma combined with high tide and rain bands from Hurricane Jose to create conditions for the unprecedented deluge, officials at the Florida Emergency Operations Center said Monday. As Venetian Islands resident Peter Warner stopped clearing large branches from his yard to clear them off the Venetian Causeway itself, shirtless Nathan Weiss stopped to chat on his way to his Collins Avenue home.

The Miami Beach police blocking off the Venetian forced Weiss to make a hopeful decision: Weiss continued his walk home. Warner continued to clear the Causeway block adjacent to his Rivo Alto home.

In downtown Coral Gables, amazingly, the electricity was working and street lights were operational. Both police and FPL crews were visible on the roads. In South Coral Gables, roadways were blocked by tree limbs and and the occasional fallen tree, including one blocking Lejeune Road south of U.

There will be no garbage, recycling or bulky trash pickup in the city of Miami Monday. The state will need to restore electric lines, put water back on, and make sure roads are passable. We have so much damage now around the state. He said everyone from the president to the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency are assisting and the ports are working to re-open to replenish fuel supplies.

Meanwhile, as the St. High tides, combined with the winds of Hurricane Jose, helped swamp Jacksonville with enormous amounts of rain early Monday. As most of Florida woke up in the dark Monday, with power out for 58 percent of the state, Gov.

It was not immediately available if he would be landing in Marathon or Boca Chica, the two Keys airports open Monday. They urged people to be careful of storm surge. It was expected to cross into Georgia in the afternoon, leaving potentially dangerous storm surges in its wake. Monday, Irma was about miles north of Tampa, with sustained winds of 70 miles an hour. A storm surge warning was discontinued from Flagler and Volusia counties south to Jupiter inlet, but a flash flood warning remains in effect for downtown Jacksonville.

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. In West Kendall, Southwest 88th Street was mostly clear of debris, but traffic lights were out and fallen branches blocked access to some side streets and avenues. One giant tree sprawled across th Ave. Law enforcement has asked motorists to treat inoperable traffic lights as four-way stops. That means each driver should come to a full and complete stop and check traffic in all directions before proceeding.

Some downed power lines were spotted and down trees, however, and additional first-in teams will not be going out until dawn. Signs of power on Anna Maria Island were observed at a distance, he said, but first responders did not go out onto the island. Inescapable Irma, the hurricane that for a week tormented the entirety of the Florida peninsula unlike any storm that came before it, will finally find its way out of the state Monday.

She will leave behind destruction from Key West to probably Tallahassee. In the end, Irma was not the feared Category 5 catastrophe she could have been, though the extent of her damage is still unknown. The dual-coast storm has already been blamed for five deaths. Overnight, the Category 2 storm pushed into western Florida further south than expected, sparing vulnerable Tampa Bay from the worst of the surging Gulf of Mexico waters.

Dan Clark superintendent of the National Key Deer Refuge, said his first priority as the massive storm approached was to evacuate National Wildlife Refuge personnel assigned to the area. Monroe County Sheriff Rick Ramsay has declared a curfew in the Florida Keys between dusk and dawn after devastating Hurricane Irma swept through the island chain.

The curfew is indefinite while damage from heavy winds and flooding is assessed. Meanwhile, no one is allowed into the Keys. Early reports indicated impassable roads and destroyed homes, especially where the damage was worst in the Upper and Middle Keys. On Sunset Drive and Southwest 92nd Avenue, railroad crossing gates were snapped and lying across the median as the lights flashed, as if a train was coming.

Along the northbound lanes of SW 87th Ave. At major intersections along SW 87th Ave. A drive from West Kendall from Doral was largely clear on the major roads, including , though several side streets were blocked by fallen trees and debris. Some were large enough to be impassable. Power was also still out in several neighborhoods.

A drive back to West Kendall from Doral was largely clear on the major roads, including and SW 27th Avenue, though several side streets were blocked by fallen trees and debris. Overnight clean up operations by North Miami Beach Police to clear the roads. Hurricane Hurricane Irma live updates: Stay with the Miami Herald for the latest reports. Be the first to know. Related stories from Miami Herald. A mostly intact window lies in the parking lot of Brickell Ave, ten stories below the Ocean Bank building it came from.

Alex Harris aharris miamiherald. A man skateboards while snapping a picture of a fallen tree at Lummus Park in the Hurricane Irma aftermath on Monday, September 11, , in Miami Beach. David Santiago dsantiago elnuevoherald. Hurricane Irma took a bite out of the retractable roof at Marlins. About people stood outside Homestead City Hall Monday afternoon to charge their phones at several outdoor electrical outlets post Hurricane Irma.

Yoann Bagat, 40, and his 5-year-old daughter Jolie walk back inside after a foot tree crashed into the front of the complex they live in on Jefferson Avenue in Miami Beach. Miami Herald Monique O. Downtown Miami was hit by heavy winds and flooding during Hurricane Irma on Sunday.

This photo shows the aftermath on Monday. Miami Herald David Smiley. Douglas Hanks dhanks miamiherald. Not to mention all the extra trouble for gate agents and such. The relationship of the industry with security is sort of weird. And as Brad pointed out, there is a benefit to the airlines in having the security stick to wave about.

David Friedman and I have gone around on this a couple of times. I have one specific criticism of that segment, namely that everyone involved was an interested adult traveling alone. But my slots are full for a while. Re monitization of the extra-legroom seats, the evidence is that it works. American and Delta followed over the past few years. That window of opportunity closed when United 93 plowed into the field.

The ability of simple weapons to stand off much larger numbers of determined crew and passengers is minor. Also, that dates to , and significantly understates the information provided on AA11, as well as incorrectly stating that no information came off UA About the only interesting piece of information is that they had mace, as well as knives.

Okay, office is closed, and I have watched the segment. All say six people booked into the back row at the front of the queue, then the next six, and so on. That sounds more like it ought to be a way of partaking of the mile high club than a way of getting onto the plane in the first place.

I guess that boarding steps tall enough to reach the larger aeroplanes are too expensive to justify the savings in boarding time. Put too many people in the same area at once, and you just get delays. The one usually floated as ideal is everyone on the right windows, left windows, and so on, so you have the work spread out.

Great for boarding soldiers or businessmen, but probably iffy if there are families and the like involved. One of my main worries about these schemes is robustness. But when a large fraction of your passengers are children, elderly, tired, or otherwise impaired, how well does it hold up?

What do you do about the people who are connecting from a delayed flight and are sprinting up partway through boarding?

First, in the US at least, most flights depart from jet bridges. The only times I recall using the rear doors were cases were we were not at a bridge mostly regional jets and once at Long Beach. The flips around the desirability of boarding order from last is best to first is best. Airlines could assign overhead bin space. But all else is rarely equal, and there are lots of things I care more about than a smallish upcharge. They have an interesting system.

The base price is amazingly low. For that price you sit wherever they decide to put you. You can reserve a seat, but the least expensive seats you can reserve are an extra twelve dollars or so. The seat prices scales up from there by multiple steps to something like a hundred dollars extra, depending on spacing. There are two reasons for this fee, which is technically optional and can be avoided by booking at the airport.

First, they may not have to be bundled into the advertised prices. How important, statistically speaking, is the ability to survive a crash, given that crashes are rare events and crashes that some passengers survive a little rarer? How much higher would the death rate per mile be if every time a plane crashed all passengers died?

At least as often as a conventional crash that kills everybody, if not a bit more frequent. Being able to get everyone off quickly is important in those cases. The seatbelts help by reducing injuries. There are also cases where the plane catches fire, and you want to get everyone off quickly.

Between the two, maybe double the rate at present? My favorite columnist Megan McArdle noted that there is one group that has been made worse off by the increasing choice of low-cost flying options: It used to be that their travel was quite pleasant, and rather expensive, and businesses had no choice but to pay for it.

But these people form a substantial fraction of the total airline traffic, and they have strong interests at stake. The places that are likely to buy airfare more like people do are the ones that are small businesses, where the employee is likely to be more invested and more willing to put up with annoyances for the good of the company. The other simple factor is that the people who get treated the worst are advance-purchase fares. And install poles to hang onto, for the low, low price of , COP.

You just get the seat for that, but they do exactly what so many people seem to accuse them of not doing. Is that actually true and does anybody know of papers on that? I did find this FTC website that explicitly suggests using form letters and provides form letters for public use. Well, it sort of is how things play out.

American calls it Main Cabin Extra. United calls it Economy Plus. JetBlue calls it the A But not a lot of people are actually willing to pay for it, because they just want cheap tickets. My series on air travel can be found linked here , and covers this in much more detail.

If the standing seats let them pack people in more tightly, then the ticket prices go down. The airlines will of course charge a premium above current ticket prices for proper seats if standing becomes popular enough, but I doubt it will be that high.

Seconded and also to comments along similar lines above. In a world of free market economics, if the cost of producing a service goes down and firms are free to compete, the price goes down. On a vaguely-related note: There are standard measures of industry concentration, such the Herfindahl index, the sum of the squares of the market shares of the competitors, which seems to be a better metric than the number of competitors.

Here is a quote from Charlie Munger. Many markets get down to two or three big competitors—or five or six. And in some of those markets, nobody makes any money to speak of. But in others, everybody does very well. That must get down to the peculiarities of individual adjustment to market capitalism.

And what does that mean? How was it translated in the Septuagint? On the other hand, the Vulgate translation might echo the Proverb, for lack of any other idea. If Matthew thought he meant to echo the Proverb, he would have translated to match the Septuagint.

But maybe he missed it. The Nicene Creed espoused Homoousia, the belief that God and Jesus are one and have existed since the beginning of time as the logos.

I hate modern websites with an avalanche of JS, menu UI that scrolls with you, expanding menus, and zoomed content intended to be read on a phone; and the whole thing usually takes way more time to load because of all the bundled minified scripts and the associated spyware.

MoR the third being this blog. I basically agree with you on preferring old-school websites. Some of the things we want require a bunch of JS, but we are currently working on drastically reducing the amount of JS we are sending to the client. So I think you will have less worries about this as time progresses. Agree with you on the chat widget. Intercom is super useful during the open beta, since it makes bug reporting much lower cost for the user, but we are definitely going to turn it off as soon as we are out of the open beta.

Regarding the last one: As time progresses we will feature more and more content from the community. I should add that, ideally, users would be able to select from multiple themes, some of which had a fixed text-column width and some of which did not.

The problem with this idea is that it means that the website is overriding the user. It means that I can no longer compensate for poor choices on the part of the website owner by changing the size of my browser window to show more text.

It also violates user expectations of how a wider browser window or a smaller font should behave. Furthermore, people use different websites in different ways. Reading the kind of thoughtful posts you would expect to see on LW may require referring back to earlier sections.

Reading a string of comments often requires you to refer back to earlier comments, and making your own comment requires you to refer back to earlier material on the page. Actually, the comments seem to have more characters on a line than the articles, which mitigates some of this. Although I wonder if this is an oversight, since this seems to be the result of using a smaller font for the comments but the same line length. It may be said, perhaps, that the solution to this problem is for the website owner to make better choices.

And if cannot or will not do this, why, then, presumably, he will also not make the good choice of listening to, and properly acting on, the reasoning you give here. I am all for user freedom. Rather, it is to make choices, and then allow the user to override them. I would really quite hate it if all websites let their body text reflow to max width, and expected me to resize my browser windows to compensate.

So you see, I and many others do not have this expectation of how a wider browser window should behave. And as for a smaller font—why, that even differs between browsers! You have differing preferences and expectations. It is also exactly the reason why customizability is key. Your point about thoughtful posts vs. I agree that this distinction ought to be reflected in the design. There are several ways to do this. Native Americans and IP law, my dad has proposed that you could set up a hospital on Native American territory and take advantage of that when it comes to pharmaceutical patents.

You have this the wrong way around. The tribe has sovereign immunity, which is preempting a challenge to the patent. This was a loophole created by Seminole Tribe of Fla. Still and all even with that oversight it took 20 years for anyone to exploit the loophole. My experience is that guys with autism are more likely to have heavy looking skeletal structure in the face, whereas men with Aspergers look more often like the classic slightly androgynous looking nerd archetype.

Am I missing something? That still leaves some potential issues. If you universally test a population expected to have a low rate of breast cancer for breast cancer with a test that has a low but non-trivial error rate, a positive result is more likely to be a false positive than an accurate result. I agree with bean that this is a real problem for actually using the technique disclosed in the paper for anything out in the real world. It is nonetheless an interesting result.

Huh, I thought over-prescription of opioids already was the standard explanation for the opioid epidemic. Seems like the core difference is that the post linked here is arguing that the resulting increase in opioid related deaths is a price we should be willing to pay for the presumed benefits for people getting those prescriptions.

Have you ever seen a movie where the machines start thinking for themselves that ends well? Well, that does it: Has The Donald ever expressed his opinions on AI existential threat or have we been mercifully spared that, at least?

Lots of people are saying it. She is unable to understand them. She is unable to understand why she should. She is unable to do it even if she understood why she should. But oh my word. She was supposed to be the smart candidate, the one with brains and policy wonkiness out her fingertips and smarts and experience and know-how and all the rest of it.

Yes indeedy, look at all the scary movies about killer computers! And some, I assume, are good robots. Climate change denial used to be a lunatic fringe kind of movement. Nowadays you can hardly find a Republican who will unequivocally say that they support the science.

It would be humorous in a dark sort of way if the same thing happened with AI risk. Texas NEEDS self-aware killbots to patrol the border and cook burgers for the local church bake sale! Radio-controlled model planes were always noisy. You played with them outside city limits or got complaints. There was a drug war reporter who mentioned in passing, just setting a scene on the border, that a lot of very poor Mexican kids were playing with expensive radio-controlled planes right on the Tex Mex border.

I could see drones catching on big with of country boys who like messing with machinery and taking drugs. Based on myself, and cursory observation of my friends and neighbors, this already happened. Pretty sure drones have already caught on with country boys who like messing with machinery. This reads like a news report some background character is seen watching at the start of a superhero movie. That sounds like after some official learned about something that might have been the actual attack, he went around and asked everyone he could reach in detail to tell about what uncomfortable distractions during the night they had in the last few month, and whether they have had trouble concentrating lately.

The attacks occur at night, last for a few hours in your sleep, and can have symptoms like hearing ringing or grinding noises, and may cause headaches when you wake up. Do you remember having experienced anything similar to you or your family in the last month?

That really seemed to indicate that they went around and asked every Canadian diplomat and also their family about whether they experienced anything strange. Another not necessarily mutually exclusive possibility is that autistic people are more sensitive to feelings of gender dysphoria for the same reason that they are more sensitive to sensory issues such as loud noises and clothing tags.

The soaring cost of grain to feed animals? One hectare of land yields one metric ton of soy protein, a common livestock feed, a year. The same amount of land can produce tons of insect protein. Oh boy, Brian Tomasik will love this idea. What I know of the island you can fit in a hat and have room for a litter of kittens — US property; US citizens; Hispanic-ancestry-with-a-heavy-dose-of-Africa; the Jets vs the Sharks; homeland to Julia de Burgos and the place where they shot most of The Losers.

And here of late, a location completely smacked by a major hurricane. Well, it appears that both land lines and cell phones pretty much went completely down. There are calls to suspend the Jones Act, which is a law that prevents other nations from doing business direct with PR and requires them to offload their goods and go through customs at US mainland ports.

As of now, the Trump administration is declining to suspend the Jones Act as they have done in the past. I have heard that PR completely lacks ports of large enough size for the Mercy or the Comfort to dock. Given this, and the power supply issues, I am not sure if suspending the Jones act would actually make any difference. But, whatever the reason, I think it reflects poorly on him.

Governor, are you getting all the aid you need or getting it fast enough from the states? First of all, we are very grateful for the administration. They have responded quickly. The president has been very attentive to the situation, personally calling me several times.

As a matter of fact, they were here with us today, making sure that all the resources in FEMA were working in conjunction with the central government. We have been working together. We have been getting results. The magnitude of this catastrophe is enormous. This is going to take a lot of help, a lot of collaboration. So, my call is to congressmen and congresswomen to take action quickly and conclusively with an aid package for Puerto Rico.

Do you worry that, because that was Texas and Florida, that Puerto Rico might be overlooked or in some sense sort of forgotten in the wake of all of that? You need to have all of the resources to restructure and rebuild Puerto Rico properly. And let me just say this. FEMA, you know, recognizes as much. Funnily enough, this was the main subject of top-of-the-hour NPR news when I was driving home from work: Civilian sea travel bores me. San Juan is a fairly major cruise port, and a quick check shows Mercy as smaller than at least one of the liners homeported there.

That might have been cleared up, though: Comfort is now apparently on her way. On the other hand, we have whole units dedicated to fixing ports. Send them in first by C Your method is foolproof! However, Irma and Maria and Harvey will probably be retired at the end of this year… so if we ever see a Hurricane Ira or Mairi, watch out, Puerto Rico! Looks like Trump is waiving the Jones Act. They can go straight to PR ports.

When I stopped, it seemed like it was becoming a magnet for culture warriors, misfits, and intellectual narcissists who wanted to pretend to superior rationality in order to bolster their arguments. Also, it seemed like a lot of the more interesting posters were drifting away. Last, somebody karma-killed me and it seemed like the mods were making up excuses not to do anything about it but instead were enforcing the rules selectively.

Not that I cared that much about karma points, I just found it irritating that they made an issue out of mass downvoting but refused to rectify the mass downvoting I had received.

In the early days, I really enjoyed Lesswrong and learned a lot of useful things on it. But I think the glory days are long past. Can genetics predict your face? Walmart is annoyed how many shoes found out how to speak.

So the regulators offered the CRAs an olive branch: I saw this — I meant evidence. As in, a link to a specific legislation, or an official proclamation of the regulating agency, or any sort of official document that says something like this.

Wikipeda links to the act. The law then goes on to exempt non-profits from the definition, but the law wikipedia links puts them back in. Banning them from spamming banks with these notices seems entirely reasonable, bad though it may be for identity theft victims.

And the humans it did better than were humans from Mechanical Turk. If you wanted to have higher accuracy for the general prediction problem of guessing gay or straight from your face than this for predicting gay vs.

How you measure error matters, especially if you want to predict successfully for imbalanced classes. But a bunch of people have said this and more better than I can at this point, for example, https: The Russian blogosphere used to be concentrated on LiveJournal, and I remember how 10 years ago or so there was a wave of flamewars about what life in late Soviet times was like, in particular about were there food shortages and how serious.

This was 20 years after the fact and people who had been adults in the 80s were shouting at each other and evidently having completely contradictory stories of what everyday life was like. Everybody sees the past through the colored glass of their ideology. Also, people tend to discount the differences in their own statuses and statures in life when they try compare themselves now and themselves 30 years ago.

That much is still true in Russia today. How does it compare to living in France today or in the US in the 80s besides the obvious technological changes? Are those even meaningful questions? You can give macroeconomic answers but the variance depending on where you live, what you do, your education level etc. Having said all that — I grew up in late Soviet times b.

We trained at wearing gauze masks in second grade in the event of a nuclear or chemical attack by the American imperialist forces; every kid received a personal gauze mask, and I was kinda distressed at having soon lost mine.

Housing worked differently from the West or Russia today. Urban dwellers typically neither rented nor owned apartments; apartments and rooms were assigned by the state, often through quotas distributed over workplaces. Typical ways to get your foot in the door were to marry someone already registered to live in Moscow, or come as a student. Soviet housing is mysterious to young people in Russia today, nevermind Westerners.

His mother lives in her own room in another communal apartment, and has just been diagnosed with cancer, but falsely told by doctors and relatives, as was normal in those times, that it was an ulcer which will pass soon. In the Soviet Union, things were typically inexpensive but unobtainable.

Everybody worked intensely at cultivating connections with the right kind of people who were gatekeepers in some distribution chains, or officials in charge of those chains.

Now repeat that for every kind of expensive item: The ideological control was very strict. Not sure what else to describe, but if someone is curious, ask. The son is ashamed to bring up the plan to move in, because the mother will immediately understand that this is the reason, and the shared pretense that she just has an ulcer which she either believes or sees through but goes along with — this is unclear will shatter. Or were they usually corrupt too?

Basically all combinations of corruption you can think of happened and were frequent. So for example take those color TVs. The right amounts of money are paid, but this is trivial since the products are relatively cheap but unobtainable. This can happen at multiple levels. Some percent of the TVs will be written off as broken, the resident technician getting some payback for certifying them so.

But all these mechanisms are systematically subverted: Can someone tell me how it can be that a quarter to a third of all Americans need strong painkillers in a given year? Is that normal for a western country? Is it a result of obesity? Considering we give out 5x the number of opioids of Japan, that seems not to be the issue —. How much of the year do they need the painkillers? Both cases were for less than a week. Did you get opioids for wisdom teeth removal?

Anecdotal but had wisdom teeth removed in Germany recently and only got Ibuprofen and was told only to take it if the pain got bad. Seems to be a very different approach from the US.

Hydrocodone, not sure what dose, and probably cut with acetaminophen. It was probably fairly low-dose, as I got really, really out of it on the Tylenol 3 they gave me for the arm I spent about an hour watching my fingers move but was fine on the pills for the wisdom teeth.

Of course, this would have been , so things might have changed. I had my wisdom teeth taken out this year and got some vicodin — I needed all of it and wished I had more. I think some extractions are more painful than others. This is probably an unhelpful answer, but: I could get through my day just fine; I think my pain receptors might be a little less responsive than the average person. Or at the very least over the counter Advil is always enough.

Maybe 2 out of every 3 years, or one out of every two? Mostly the answer is nothing. For some pain killers, though — no idea which ones — yowza. I really see why people use them recreationally. When I got my quite impacted wisdom teeth out I got a prescription for pain meds — which I promptly ignored in favor of ibuprofen because stubbornness and cheapness combined to make the copay not worth it.

Hydrocodone is a strong prescription opioid, but it gets prescribed both for pain as Vicodin and as a prescription cough suppressant Tussionex. I wonder how much it accounts for the differences in opioid prescriptions between countries.

If the opioid crisis was driven by mere ease of getting opioids for pain treatment, very obviously the problem would be worse in the many other developed countries where codeine is available OTC. Off on my own, spinning stories to fit my prejudices, I could claim that the US problem is the unavailability of opioids to the general population. Faced with a patient in pain, the doctors shoot to make sure the pain is relieved, and prescribe stronger opioid drugs than the OTC preparations available in other countries.

These stronger drugs have stronger addictive effects, both psychological and physiological, and accordingly produce more addicts. Thus France, by consuming three times as much codeine per capita as the US, avoids addiction-fed demand for stronger opioids, and keeps its standardized daily does per capita of all opioids down to one-fifth that of the US.

There are a lot of other differences between France and the US, too. In Europe French are known to pop a pill for everything. This year, I have had nothing stronger than an Advil. I was prescribed maybe a dozen Oxycontin for the oral surgery. I took maybe 6. I was prescribed Oxycontin but only took a few days of my allotment. I was given nothing at the ER and the pain was rather exquisite after the first hour or two.

Nope, the US is an outlier among even developed nations — https: I feel like this is a much better example than Mizzou. Students are avoiding this university because of political correctness! But that narrative was not unchallenged.

Students are avoiding this university because of racism! It was because of racists. Even white people were staying away because of the racists. Tyler Morris, a white student from St.

Louis, said he was afraid of being stereotyped as a bigot if he went to Missouri. I think it might be more a case of parents not wanting to send their year-olds someplace where the alleged adults in charge let the inmates run the asylum, and where the resulting bad PR clearly if perhaps unfairly puts a taint on a Mizzou degree.

I took more crap for being a New York Jew — from my friends! I loved the place and am so sad about all this. Along with being pretty white the place was relatively non-political. But that kind of place increasingly is not allowed to exist anymore. Everything and every place eventually gets a target on its back for someone who wants to make it political.

Yes, identity theft is a problem, but so is people who genuinely have bad credit who are trying to improve their credit for the purpose of bilking more money out of the banks, which they will then default on. Form letters make it easy for both groups to force the banks to do a check, which costs them time and money. The author of that post has an understandable anti-bank bias, but as he points out, almost all of us are also stockholders in the banks, too.

People may not be so awful at recognising races to the bottom and similar traps well in advance. Already being at the lowest tier is protective. The price could be amazing: The lowest tier matters. Melting Asphalt … proposes an alternative theory where ads are about creating shared social context. Reminds me of my favorite Soviet Union joke: This does not imply that current tobacco control policies are all to- gether ineffective in reducing smoking since they could have reduced the intensity of smoking or stimulated the quit rate from smoking.

All they checked for was the effect on smoking initiation rate, not the impact on overall smoking incidence or intensity.

Metaculus is a platform for generating crowd-sourced predictions about the future, especially science and technology. If you're interested in testing yourself and contributing to their project, check out their questions page.

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